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The BRICS+ Revolution: Is the World on the Verge of a New Global Economic Order?

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The World is witnessing a paradigm shift in the global economic order led by BRICS while the US is witnessing its withering away from the unipolar moment. The contemporary world economic order is based on the dwindling US dollar hegemony, US colossal trade deficit, foreign currency exchange in US dollars, and its stability, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank its main pillars, which were the products of the post World War II Bretton woods system that collapsed in 1970. Over the past few years, the states have started losing confidence in the current economic order and looking towards emerging economies for a viable alternative global economic order, lowering their vulnerability and utter reliance on the US dollar, about. the flagrant use of dollar hegemony by the US to pursue its geopolitical interests, that is the weaponization of currency mainly through the imposition of sanctions to wreak havoc on its rivals by isolating them. Besides that, the struggling economies of the developing nations already hit by covid-pandemic are scuffling to keep the reserves of currency, i.e., the Dollar, which is comparatively of high value.

As per the reports, the dollar foreign currency exchange reserves have faced a heavy drop from 73% in 2001 to 58% by 2023, whereas China’s Yuan holds fifth position in the world market with 3 percent shares. Moreover, US authoritarian policies of increasing interest rates on the dollar led to. A high exchange rate and worsening the present\current dollar crisis. Also, in the wake of shifts in geopolitics and the emergence of new regional blocs significantly, Beijing’s appearance as the emerging hegemon on the face of global politics has immensely affected the contemporary economic order by making new alliances and its huge direct investments ranging from South Asia, the Middle East to South Africa.

Amid the emerging multipolar order, countries like China, India, Brazil, and Russia, as new contenders of world power, BRICS contributing to one-quarter of the global world economy and around 42 percent of the world population, aim to de-dollarize the global economy gradually. BRICS, which was initially based as an economic cooperation forum, has now posed itself as the representative of the global south. It has offered viable diplomatic and financial media. 

The Shanghai-based New Development Bank of BRICS has posed as a rival financial institution to Bretton Wood’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Development Bank. As NDB has enunciated in April 2023, up to 30 percent of the total loans to the member states will be offered in their local currencies to help them break away from the longstanding US dollar dominance in the world market. Besides, it will provide a sigh of relief to the dwindling economies of especially the developing countries from the stringent dictating economic policies laid down by the IMF, which have, for most of the time, added to the misery of a layman. The middle eastern state, Egypt, has officially become the eighth NDB member, and Riyadh is soon to become its ninth member. At the same time, it is engaged in extensive talks with NDB, which is initially having BRICS states, Bangladesh and UAE as member states holding up their shares, marking the expansion of the new economic bloc, implying the growing reservation of the World for its continuing dependence on the dollarized world economy.

States across the globe are traversing the path of de-dollarization, relieving themselves of the burden of sustaining their foreign exchange currency reserves and maintaining enough dollar banks for trade-in. The liberal capitalist market by relying on local currency trade (LCT), which is gaining widespread acceptance, thus engaging in. bilateral trade by local currency exchange. LCT observed a hike after the onset of the Russian-Ukraine crisis whereby states have averted the sanctions imposed on Russia by resorting to work in local currencies like Rubel and Yuan and recourse to making payments in the third currency as renounced to be practiced by Dhaka and Moscow using Yuan, yet another blow to US dollar hegemony. Keeping up with the trend, the South Asian state, Pakistan, has also shown keen interest in. importing oil from Moscow in Rubel. As of 2023, Dhaka and Delhi have pronounced their disposition to engage in bilateral trade in Indian Rupee to minimize their dependence on the greenback. In addition, one of the major players in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia, is planning to export oil to China in the Chinese Yuan.

The BRICS takes its limelight from Beijing, which is leading the alliance as China is challenging the US Hegemony whereby analysts are hinting towards cold war 2.0. According to the World Bank database, China contributed 38.6 percent to world economic growth from 2013-2021, more than G7 combined. On top of that, BRICS nations have started trading agreements in either Chinese or national currencies. Recently, in March, Brazil announced that its US $150 billion trade with China will now be carried on exchanging Yuan for Brazilian Reals and vice versa. Yuan has begun directing its influence in the Middle East with Iraq’s central bank proclamation in February that China would finance imports in Yuan to make up for the US dollar shortage in Iraqi local markets by converting the US dollars reserves to Yuan to make Iraq- China trade viable. Argentina has also expressed interest in trading in Yuan, abandoning the dollar. From all these developments, it can be ascertained that the Yuan is spreading its tentacles across the global market at a staggering yet steady pace. To strike the last nail in the coffin of US dollar hegemony, BRICS are planning to introduce their new common reserve currency based on the basket of BRICS currencies to end their dependence on the US dollar for international trade. 

Despite all the developments, the World has a long way to go to experience an overhaul of the world economic order soon. The United States of America, with its more than 20 trillion-dollar economy, remains on the top, having the most dynamic world capital markets. Around 90 percent of the FX trade was carried in US dollars in 2022 alone, and up to 60 percent of the foreign exchange reserves have been in US dollars. The states which have embarked on this task, mainly BRICS, have to confront particular challenges as China seems reluctant to open its capital markets, which may lead to rapid capital outflows, and still, it will take much to usurp dollar hegemony like the introduction of new currency for international transactions, new economic institutions like IMF and World Bank, liquidity flows, sustainability of foreign exchange reserves, etc. 

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CPEC

Poor Winter Maintenance of KKH Risks CPEC All-Weather Trade

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KKH winter maintenance

The Karakoram Highway (KKH), a vital lifeline for trade between Pakistan and China under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), faces critical challenges each winter due to negligent maintenance. Connecting the two nations through the Khunjerab Pass—at over 4,693 meters (15,397 feet) above sea level—this strategic route is central to trade and regional economic integration. The pass connects Gilgit-Baltistan with China’s Xinjiang region and was reopened after closing for almost three years in April 2023. The land border was closed in 2020 after the outbreak of COVID-19. However, when heavy snowfalls hit, KKH becomes treacherous, risking the disruption of trade and the economic ties vital to both countries.


The KKH, a pivotal component of CPEC, facilitates the movement of goods and strengthens economic ties between Pakistan and China. Its year-round functionality is crucial for trade. Yet, the lack of timely snow clearance and road maintenance is disrupting the route, undermining the goals of CPEC.
Despite past agreements aimed at transforming the KKH into an all-weather route, meaningful execution has been lacking. This year, authorities have announced plans to finally implement measures to ensure year-round connectivity. However, the existing state of road maintenance raises doubts about their effectiveness and commitment.


For Aman Ullah, a resident and trader from Gojal, Hunza, the snowbound Karakoram Highway is more than just an inconvenience—it’s a daily struggle that threatens his livelihood. “We are often left stranded for days, with no way to continue our trade,” he shared with The Karakoram.
Aman explained, “A few years ago, the Chinese government donated four state-of-the-art snow-clearing machines to the FWO for winter maintenance of the Khunjerab Border and nearby sections of the KKH. These advanced machines, equipped with computerized systems, were intended to ensure safe travel and uninterrupted trade. However, only one of these machines remains operational today, and even that is reportedly in poor condition. Instead of effectively clearing the snow, it often leaves the road even worse, making travel difficult. The fate of the other three machines remains unknown, raising serious concerns about mismanagement and a lack of accountability.”


The poor state of snow clearing operations has caused a worrying rise in road accidents, Tufail Ahmed, the owner of a transport company whose vehicles frequently travel to China via the KKH, shared his frustrations. Stranded vehicles have become a common sight, with travelers risking their lives in freezing temperatures,” he said.
Abdur Rehman, an import-export trader from Gilgit-Baltistan, highlighted the contrast between the two sides, adding, “In stark contrast, the Chinese side of the Khunjerab Pass ensures the road remains well-maintained and operational during winter. Advanced machinery and a proactive approach demonstrate their commitment to maintaining seamless connectivity. This disparity reflects poorly on Pakistan’s preparedness and raises questions about the efficiency of NHA and FWO.”


Dr. Faqeer Muhammad, Director of the China Study Centre in Gilgit-Baltistan, emphasized the broader implications, stating, “The KKH is more than just a road—it’s a vital trade corridor that plays a key role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); it is a symbol of connectivity, trade, and opportunity. Neglecting its maintenance during winter risks undermining Pakistan’s economic and strategic interests, calling for immediate attention from the authorities.” Its maintenance is critical not just for trade but for the broader economic and strategic objectives of CPEC.


This neglect not only puts lives in danger but also hampers trade activities, creating significant bottlenecks for transportation linked to CPEC.
Residents and stakeholders are demanding urgent action to address these issues. Effective utilization of resources, transparent accountability for the missing machinery, and better coordination between authorities are imperative. Maintaining the KKH as a safe and reliable trade route is not just a regional necessity; it is a cornerstone of CPEC and a matter of national importance.

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Gilgit-Baltistan Marks 77th Liberation Day from Dogra Rule

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Gilgit Baltistan Independence

Gilgit-Baltistan enthusiastically celebrated its 77th Liberation Day on November 1st, 2024. A public holiday was declared in all ten districts, and various events were organized to commemorate the occasion.


The main event was held at Yadgar Shuhada Chinar Bagh, where Governor Syed Mehdi Shah, Chief Minister Haji Gulbar Khan, and Commander FCNA Major General Syed Imtiaz Hussain Gilani unfurled the national flag. Provincial ministers, the Chief Secretary, the IG Police, and other senior officials also attended the ceremony. Floral tributes were paid to the martyrs, and the armed forces of the GB Police presented a salute.
Governor Syed Mehdi Shah emphasized the sacrifices made by the Gilgit-Baltistan Scouts, the region’s forefathers to liberate it from Dogra rule. He also acknowledged the sacrifices of the martyrs and reaffirmed the commitment to national security.


A special Independence Day ceremony was organized at the Army Helipad, where high-ranking civil and military officials participated. For the first time in Gilgit-Baltistan’s history, the 77th Independence Day Parade was telecast live on national channels, including Gilgit-Baltistan PTV. Many people viewed the parade live at Wahab Shaheed Ground and Lalak Jan Shaheed Ground.

Commander 10 Corps Lieutenant General Shahid Imtiaz highlighted the significance of Gilgit-Baltistan’s freedom, achieved through the courage and sacrifice of its people. He emphasized the region’s enduring loyalty to Pakistan.


Chief Minister Haji Gulbar Khan paid tribute to the region’s martyrs and expressed pride in the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. He also acknowledged the pivotal role played by the Gilgit-Baltistan Scouts, a force with a rich history dating back to the British Raj. Their courage and sacrifice were instrumental in securing the region’s freedom from Dogra rule. Alongside the local populace, the Scouts fought valiantly against the Dogra forces and ultimately achieved victory.


The Independence Day Parade featured troops from the NLI Center, GB Scouts, Women Police, GB Police, Punjab Rangers, Cadet College Skardu, and Cadet College Chilas. The celebrations also included paragliding performances and cultural programs, featuring national and regional patriotic songs as well as local dances.


Similar celebrations were held in all districts of Gilgit-Baltistan, with cultural programs, flag hoisting ceremonies, and tributes to martyrs. The Pakistan Army played a significant role in organizing these events and broadcasting special programs.


As Gilgit-Baltistan commemorates its 77th Liberation Day, it reaffirms its commitment to national unity and prosperity. The region’s rich history, diverse culture, and stunning natural beauty continue to attract visitors from around the world. With its strategic location and abundant resources, Gilgit-Baltistan is poised to play a vital role in Pakistan’s development and progress.

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A Tryst With History On The Karakoram

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Gilgit

Gilgit, a sleepy outpost at the heart of High Asia, plays a key role in shaping the region’s geopolitics over millennia— including the rivalry eulogised as The Great Game between the British and Russian Empires.

It was during the research for my manuscript, ‘The Great Gilgit Game’, that I came across a people with whom I share a regional ancestry – the Burusho community of Kashmir. Evoking a professional high, given its prospects of enriching my academic endeavour, the discovery also elicited a personal joy, as I conjured a sense of kinship and association – the desire for familiarity, of belongingness and ownership being key pursuits of those uprooted or isolated from their native cultures and domain. I was a Pakistani, living in India.

I had chosen to write about Gilgit, a sleepy outpost at the heart of High Asia, not only to pay homage to my roots and ancestry, but also as a revisit to the marvel that constituted its strategic geography, having played a key, even if little appreciated role, in shaping the region’s geopolitics over millennia – including the rivalry eulogized as The Great Game between the British and Russian Empires. Currently, as the border gateway to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship enterprise of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the region is once again poised to become a key theatre of the evolving Great Power Competition, situated as it is at the crossroads of critical histories, geographies, rivalries and resources.

Amidst the churn of great power dynamics, why the banality of a small émigré community having captured my imagination? Stemming partly from the promise of a personal connect, it was the intriguing backdrop within which the migration took place that caught my attention. The migration in reality was a banishment, that of the reigning ruler of Nagar, a border pocket state situated on a tract of land famously described by the British traveler E.F Knight as “Where three Empires meet”. Nagar along with its sister state of Hunza, the fabled valley identified by many as the mythical Shangri–La of James Hilton’s ‘Lost Horizon’, occupied great strategic salience within the British imperial construct, especially as part of its Forward Policy against a perceived Russian onslaught on its northern frontiers in the mid-nineteenth century. The petty states of Hunza and Nagar were situated at the southern end of the Pamir Mountains in what today constitutes Gilgit-Baltistan— a part of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir. It also bound the neighbouring Chinese territory of Xinjiang (East Turkestan) and the Khanates of Central Asia— all annexed and under the patronage of Russia— hence the “meeting of the three Empires”. This further whetted the fear of what came to be termed as the “Pamir Gap”— the possibility of various passes along the Pamir and Karakoram mountains being used by Russian Cossack forces to launch an invading attack on India. Under these circumstances it became imperative for the British to secure key border regions and bring them directly under the Empire’s sway. This however, was not an outlook the rulers of the Hunza and Nagar states were receptive to, especially as Hunza, the bigger and more powerful of the two states, had already entered into a tributary relationship with the neighboring Chinese Empire. Besides, as autonomous states the rulers especially that of Nagar, the defiant Raja Azure Khan, were reluctant to surrender their authority and powers. The inability to reach an agreement over the issue between the two sides, subsequently lead to The Anglo-Burusho war of 1891. A bloody battle ensued and despite the brave front put up by the Hunza-Nagar forces, the superior British force imposed a crippling defeat. The importance of the campaign can be ascertained by the fact that three Victoria Crosses (VC) and numerous Indian Orders of Merit were awarded to the troops by the British Government. The fact that the British forces were led by Colonel Algernon Durand, the brother of then Foreign Secretary of India, Sir Mortimer Durand further underscores the significance of the campaign.

The British victory also sealed the fate of Raja Azure Khan, the incumbent Raja of Nagar, who was ultimately exiled to Kashmir. His pliant brother, Sikander Khan was placed on the throne instead, clearing the way for a smooth transition towards the British territorialisation, and hence domination of the region. In Kashmir, Azure Khan was initially imprisoned at the Hari Parbat fort, along with his supporters who were exiled with him. After six years of imprisonment, he was then shifted to a nearby estate and kept under house arrest. It was in March 1922 that Azure Khan breathed his last and was laid to rest in a mausoleum situated in the outskirts of Srinagar city. His offspring and those of his followers banished with him continue to reside in the city.

This fascinating piece of history piqued my interest both in terms of its historical gravity and the personal opportunity it presented to forge a connect. I had already known some of the offspring of the erstwhile ruler, without knowing the history, but as invested as they were within the structures of Kashmir’s elite socialization, there was little scope for the cultural identification I was looking for. I was somehow led to the set of descendants still living in the vicinity of the estate Azure Khan had spent his final years in and was taken aback at the laborious preservation of their erstwhile culture and identity. The conscious effort and perseverance in cultivating their roots was laudable. While I too traced my antecedents to Gilgit, I was not ethnically a Burusho. Nestled in the heart of High Asia, Gilgit had over millennia bordered myriad imperial territories, cultures and ethnicities, becoming a melting pot of the same. The northern territories of Hunza-Nagar bore heavy Central Asian imprints, while the southern territory of Astore, to which I belong, diluted the cultural impact of the region’s northern neighbours. Hunza-Nagar had also acquired the Pagan customs of the northern (Central Asian) steppes including the belief system of Shamanism which they continue to practice, albeit in a watered-down version, to date. A shared language, the great denominator, was also missing. The community spoke Burushaski, a language isolate spoken only by the people of Hunza-Nagar, whereas I speak Shina, the predominant language of Gilgit.

This however didn’t hold me back and neither did it deter them. I was invited for tea with the community. As I entered the hillock where the community largely lived – near Kathi Darwaza in downtown Srinagar, it was as if I was transported to the alleys of Gilgit. There was a certain character to the place that reminded me of home, whether real or imagined, but I felt an instant connect. Despite the passage of well over a century and four generations later the Burusho community continued to firmly hold on to their customs and ethos. Even the youngest generation communicated in fluent Burushaski and an evident sense of pride in their antecedents prevailed. This had however not kept them from assimilating into the larger society around them but there was a conscious decision to hold on to their ancestral way of life. I was shown photographs of weddings where the traditional Nagar practices and rituals were incorporated alongside the Kashmiri traditions. The grooms continued to wear the traditional Gilgiti outfit known as the Chogah. The men adorned the peculiar tilted woollen headgear referred to as Khoi in Gilgit—I remember my uncle gifting Khois to my young children on their last visit there, over a decade ago. The women also owned traditional Gilgiti silver jewelry having collected them from previous visits to Gilgit or received them as gifts from relatives in Gilgit during planned pilgrimages to Makkah together. Over the years communication had however become difficult as relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated. The anguish of the community over the inability to stay in touch with their loved ones was indicative of the plight of divided families separated by conflict.

Another means through which the community preserved its ethnicity was by instituting marriages strictly within the community, a practice especially espoused by the royalty. It was also a means of keeping their race ‘pure’. The practice had been instrumental in preserving the Central Asian physical features of the community characterized by a bright complexion with mostly blue or green monolid eyes, distinct from the aquiline nose and high cheek bone facial features of the indigenous Kashmiri race. Hence the sobriquet ‘Botraja’; Bota in Kashmir refers to people with mongoloid features, and raja means King. However, with time, inter-marriages have started to become normalised. Also, in a departure from their ancestors in Nagar, the community in Kashmir traces their lineage to Nausherwan Adil (Nausherwan the Just), one of the most venerated Kings of ancient Persia. Their counterparts in Gilgit however trace their antecedents to Alexander the Great, while some also establish heredity with fairies and deities – a reflection of their belief system centered around themes of the Supernatural. Gilgit has however appealed to such enthralling wonderments since times bygone, be it the “Gold-Digging Ants” of Herodotus or the site of the more scientifically proven tectonic collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates that gave rise to the mighty Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau – the highest in the world. Gilgit also houses one of the oldest and most diverse collection of petroglyphs (Rock Art) in the world and has been an important (southern) artery along the ancient Silk Road through which Buddhism spread to the East under the aegis of the Great Kushan King Kanishka via the passes of the Karakoram Mountains. The Karakoram Mountains and the Karakoram Highway that now traverses through it from the border with China in the north all the way to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean to the south, remains an intrinsic pathway for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which has now assumed strategic significance well beyond just economics. The region is steadily emerging as an intersection where the India-Pakistan, India-China and US-China rivalries converge. The India-China border conflict of 2020, in close vicinity to the Karakoram Pass being one such representation. The region is very much on course to becoming the next hotspot as per Harold Mackinder’s Eurasian Heartland theory and the evolving Indo-pacific strategic architecture.

Having come across documents related to Mir Sikander Khan, the brother of Azure Khan who was made to succeed him after the latter’s exile, I became curious as to whether the paths of the brothers ever crossed again. One such early opportunity arose during Raja Sikander Khan’s visit to Srinagar in 1903 enroute Delhi for the Coronation Durbar, held to celebrate the succession of King Edward VII as Emperor of India. Upon inquiry, Raja Tasleem Khan, the great grandson of Raja Azure Khan, denied knowledge of any such encounters, more so as Raja Azure Khan was then being kept under house arrest while Mir Sikander Khan was visiting with official protocol. It became clear that there had been no interaction whatsoever, between the direct descendants of Azure Khan and that of Raja Sikander Khan. The two families had also followed different socio-political trajectories with the successors of Raja Sikander Khan having enjoyed state patronage in Pakistan as ceremonial rulers of the erstwhile state of Nagar, while those of Azure Khan led common lives in Kashmir. I also tried getting in touch with the incumbent Raja of Nagar, Raja Qasim Khan who now lives in London, to get his views on the subject and establish communication, if possible, between the two families. But to no avail.

Looking back, the saga of Raja Azure Khan has enabled me an entirely novel perspective, bringing closer to home the intricacies of imperial machinations. It has also drawn my attention to the power of the moment, how a defining decision or event can alter the course of history and the destiny of many. More so, the history of the region no longer remains a distant, blurred ideation for me, having acquired a life of its own with the real-life, personalized appreciation of its inner workings and the course it took. The family of Raja Azure Khan continues to remain a source of heartfelt camaraderie.

Asma Khan Lone

The writer is an academic. A graduate of the University of Cambridge, she has previously taught at Jindal Global University and is presently working on her manuscript ‘The Great Gilgit Game’ with Penguin India.

This article was originally published in Outlook India.

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