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The BRICS+ Revolution: Is the World on the Verge of a New Global Economic Order?

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The World is witnessing a paradigm shift in the global economic order led by BRICS while the US is witnessing its withering away from the unipolar moment. The contemporary world economic order is based on the dwindling US dollar hegemony, US colossal trade deficit, foreign currency exchange in US dollars, and its stability, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank its main pillars, which were the products of the post World War II Bretton woods system that collapsed in 1970. Over the past few years, the states have started losing confidence in the current economic order and looking towards emerging economies for a viable alternative global economic order, lowering their vulnerability and utter reliance on the US dollar, about. the flagrant use of dollar hegemony by the US to pursue its geopolitical interests, that is the weaponization of currency mainly through the imposition of sanctions to wreak havoc on its rivals by isolating them. Besides that, the struggling economies of the developing nations already hit by covid-pandemic are scuffling to keep the reserves of currency, i.e., the Dollar, which is comparatively of high value.

As per the reports, the dollar foreign currency exchange reserves have faced a heavy drop from 73% in 2001 to 58% by 2023, whereas China’s Yuan holds fifth position in the world market with 3 percent shares. Moreover, US authoritarian policies of increasing interest rates on the dollar led to. A high exchange rate and worsening the present\current dollar crisis. Also, in the wake of shifts in geopolitics and the emergence of new regional blocs significantly, Beijing’s appearance as the emerging hegemon on the face of global politics has immensely affected the contemporary economic order by making new alliances and its huge direct investments ranging from South Asia, the Middle East to South Africa.

Amid the emerging multipolar order, countries like China, India, Brazil, and Russia, as new contenders of world power, BRICS contributing to one-quarter of the global world economy and around 42 percent of the world population, aim to de-dollarize the global economy gradually. BRICS, which was initially based as an economic cooperation forum, has now posed itself as the representative of the global south. It has offered viable diplomatic and financial media. 

The Shanghai-based New Development Bank of BRICS has posed as a rival financial institution to Bretton Wood’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Development Bank. As NDB has enunciated in April 2023, up to 30 percent of the total loans to the member states will be offered in their local currencies to help them break away from the longstanding US dollar dominance in the world market. Besides, it will provide a sigh of relief to the dwindling economies of especially the developing countries from the stringent dictating economic policies laid down by the IMF, which have, for most of the time, added to the misery of a layman. The middle eastern state, Egypt, has officially become the eighth NDB member, and Riyadh is soon to become its ninth member. At the same time, it is engaged in extensive talks with NDB, which is initially having BRICS states, Bangladesh and UAE as member states holding up their shares, marking the expansion of the new economic bloc, implying the growing reservation of the World for its continuing dependence on the dollarized world economy.

States across the globe are traversing the path of de-dollarization, relieving themselves of the burden of sustaining their foreign exchange currency reserves and maintaining enough dollar banks for trade-in. The liberal capitalist market by relying on local currency trade (LCT), which is gaining widespread acceptance, thus engaging in. bilateral trade by local currency exchange. LCT observed a hike after the onset of the Russian-Ukraine crisis whereby states have averted the sanctions imposed on Russia by resorting to work in local currencies like Rubel and Yuan and recourse to making payments in the third currency as renounced to be practiced by Dhaka and Moscow using Yuan, yet another blow to US dollar hegemony. Keeping up with the trend, the South Asian state, Pakistan, has also shown keen interest in. importing oil from Moscow in Rubel. As of 2023, Dhaka and Delhi have pronounced their disposition to engage in bilateral trade in Indian Rupee to minimize their dependence on the greenback. In addition, one of the major players in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia, is planning to export oil to China in the Chinese Yuan.

The BRICS takes its limelight from Beijing, which is leading the alliance as China is challenging the US Hegemony whereby analysts are hinting towards cold war 2.0. According to the World Bank database, China contributed 38.6 percent to world economic growth from 2013-2021, more than G7 combined. On top of that, BRICS nations have started trading agreements in either Chinese or national currencies. Recently, in March, Brazil announced that its US $150 billion trade with China will now be carried on exchanging Yuan for Brazilian Reals and vice versa. Yuan has begun directing its influence in the Middle East with Iraq’s central bank proclamation in February that China would finance imports in Yuan to make up for the US dollar shortage in Iraqi local markets by converting the US dollars reserves to Yuan to make Iraq- China trade viable. Argentina has also expressed interest in trading in Yuan, abandoning the dollar. From all these developments, it can be ascertained that the Yuan is spreading its tentacles across the global market at a staggering yet steady pace. To strike the last nail in the coffin of US dollar hegemony, BRICS are planning to introduce their new common reserve currency based on the basket of BRICS currencies to end their dependence on the US dollar for international trade. 

Despite all the developments, the World has a long way to go to experience an overhaul of the world economic order soon. The United States of America, with its more than 20 trillion-dollar economy, remains on the top, having the most dynamic world capital markets. Around 90 percent of the FX trade was carried in US dollars in 2022 alone, and up to 60 percent of the foreign exchange reserves have been in US dollars. The states which have embarked on this task, mainly BRICS, have to confront particular challenges as China seems reluctant to open its capital markets, which may lead to rapid capital outflows, and still, it will take much to usurp dollar hegemony like the introduction of new currency for international transactions, new economic institutions like IMF and World Bank, liquidity flows, sustainability of foreign exchange reserves, etc. 

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Arts, Culture & Heritage

Rumi, the Moral Psychologist

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Maulana Jalal-ud-Din Mohammad (1207-1273), popularly known as Rumi, was a Muslim theologian-turned-poet. His poetry, published in two genres of masnavi and ghazal is mainly focused on the idea of love and its relation to the intimacy with God. However, the thoughts of Rumi, expressed through thousands of verses and ghazals, go beyond love and touch upon various aspects of human life and the universe. Even a cursory reading of Rumi’s poetry reveals his wide-ranging and thoughtful expressions on nature, universe, world, anger, lust, justice, purity, etc. According to Ahmed Javed, a contemporary literary critic, Rumi is the best author of human experience in the world. In other words, Rumi best describes the meaning of being a human on planet earth. Alan Williams, professor of Iraninan studies and translator of the works of Rumi, has identified the voice of moral reflection or homily as one of the seven voices while defining the narrative structure of Masnavi, a long poem by Rumi published in 06 volumes. Similar vein of advice and observations on moral psychology can be found in over 3,000 ghazals of Divan or Divan-e- Shams, the collection of ghazals by Rumi. Brittanica, an online encyclopedia, defines moral psychology as “the empirical and conceptual study of moral judgement, motivation and development”. This article details the verses of Rumi, from both Masnavi and Divan, which convey the deep observations of the poet regarding moral psychology. The verses are easily discernible for enduring reliability.


Like other poets, Rumi deploys the tropes of allegory, metaphor, simile, folklore, historical events, personalities, Quranic verses, Hadith etc to make his point. I will present a selection of verses from Rumi’s Masnavi and Divan highlighting the moral psychology therein.


این جہان کوہ است و فعل ما ندا
سوئ ما آید نداہا راصدا
(M I:215)
This world is the mountain, and our action the shout: the echo of the shouts comes (back) to us.

Rumi has explained the recompense for deeds and misdeeds by comparing the whole world to a mountain. Just like the mountain returns the schists by echoing it, the good and bad deeds are accordingly rewarded in this world.
Rumi’s places a lot of emphasis on the importance of thoughts in the life of a human being. He considers that a human being is nothing but a thought itself.


ای برادر تو همان اندیشه ای
ما بقی خود استخوان و ریشه ای
گر گ‌ُل است اندیشه ای تو گُلشنی
ور بوُد خاری تو هیمه گُلخنی
Brother! Your worth is in your thoughts alone; you are blood and flesh apart from that
You are rose, if all your thoughts are selfless
If bitter, you are a thorn that is judged worthless
Brother, your worth is in your thoughts alone
M II, 277-278

The formidable effect of a person’s thoughts are highlighted in the above verses. The precursor of every action is a thought. In a sense Rumi is ahead of René Descartes (1596–1650), French philosopher, by three hundred years who affirmed cogito ergo sum ( think therefore I am!). In other words, the ability to think and perceive constituted the most important element of human existence. At many places in both Masnavi and Divan Rumi elucidates how negative thoughts disempower and depress a human being and how he can rise above those thought processes. In the opening verse of Ghazal 2500 of Divan, Rumi diagnosed that the doom and gloom is always characterised by mean thoughts of a man:


چه افسردی در آن گوشه چرا تو هم نمی‌گردی
مگر تو فکر منحوسی که جز بر غم نمی‌گرد
Why are you depressed and cornered instead of moving ahead?
But then you are an epitome of mean thought and you are obsessed over grief

In numerous verses, Rumi emphasises the layered and unfathomable inner world of a human being, making it all the more important to avoid judging someone through appearances alone. An example:


َمرد را صد سال عم و خال او
یک سر ُمویی نہ ِبیند حال اُو
A man’s paternal and maternal uncles (may see him) for a hundred years, and of his (inward) state not see (so much as) the tip of a hair (M:3, 4249)

Rumi underlines the complexity of human psyche in that it is characterised by an inner world which is rarely apparent. In other words, he implies that our judgements based on the outward appearances or behaviour of a person may well be wrong considering that appearances never represent the human being on the whole.

Regarding worldly gains and glory, Rumi maintains that on the one hand they uplift and increase a person’s standing among the people but conversely they become the reason of the downfall too as succinctly expressed in the verse below:


دشمنِ طاؤس آمد پر اُو
ای بسی شہ را بکشتہ فر اُو
The peacock’s plumage is its enemy: O many the king who hath been slain by his magnificence!
(M1:208)

Rumi is of the view that by reciprocating a bad deed, one becomes equal to the perpetrator of the act. He, therefore, exhorts restraint or better still good behaviour in response to treatment.


گر فراق بندہ از بد بندھگی است
چون تو با بد بندگی پس فرق چیست

Have I deserved my fate for some offence; If you hurt sinners what’s the difference?(M:1,1564)

It can be discerned from the above selection that besides numerous themes in his collection of verses (in Masnavi and Divan) Rumi conveys a message of morality in unmatched eloquence and clarity. Perhaps it is beauty and depth and a sense of wonder in these verses that remain relevant to date and keeps guiding anyone who immerses in the ocean of his wisdom.

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CPEC

Poor Winter Maintenance of KKH Risks CPEC All-Weather Trade

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KKH winter maintenance

The Karakoram Highway (KKH), a vital lifeline for trade between Pakistan and China under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), faces critical challenges each winter due to negligent maintenance. Connecting the two nations through the Khunjerab Pass—at over 4,693 meters (15,397 feet) above sea level—this strategic route is central to trade and regional economic integration. The pass connects Gilgit-Baltistan with China’s Xinjiang region and was reopened after closing for almost three years in April 2023. The land border was closed in 2020 after the outbreak of COVID-19. However, when heavy snowfalls hit, KKH becomes treacherous, risking the disruption of trade and the economic ties vital to both countries.


The KKH, a pivotal component of CPEC, facilitates the movement of goods and strengthens economic ties between Pakistan and China. Its year-round functionality is crucial for trade. Yet, the lack of timely snow clearance and road maintenance is disrupting the route, undermining the goals of CPEC.
Despite past agreements aimed at transforming the KKH into an all-weather route, meaningful execution has been lacking. This year, authorities have announced plans to finally implement measures to ensure year-round connectivity. However, the existing state of road maintenance raises doubts about their effectiveness and commitment.


For Aman Ullah, a resident and trader from Gojal, Hunza, the snowbound Karakoram Highway is more than just an inconvenience—it’s a daily struggle that threatens his livelihood. “We are often left stranded for days, with no way to continue our trade,” he shared with The Karakoram.
Aman explained, “A few years ago, the Chinese government donated four state-of-the-art snow-clearing machines to the FWO for winter maintenance of the Khunjerab Border and nearby sections of the KKH. These advanced machines, equipped with computerized systems, were intended to ensure safe travel and uninterrupted trade. However, only one of these machines remains operational today, and even that is reportedly in poor condition. Instead of effectively clearing the snow, it often leaves the road even worse, making travel difficult. The fate of the other three machines remains unknown, raising serious concerns about mismanagement and a lack of accountability.”


The poor state of snow clearing operations has caused a worrying rise in road accidents, Tufail Ahmed, the owner of a transport company whose vehicles frequently travel to China via the KKH, shared his frustrations. Stranded vehicles have become a common sight, with travelers risking their lives in freezing temperatures,” he said.
Abdur Rehman, an import-export trader from Gilgit-Baltistan, highlighted the contrast between the two sides, adding, “In stark contrast, the Chinese side of the Khunjerab Pass ensures the road remains well-maintained and operational during winter. Advanced machinery and a proactive approach demonstrate their commitment to maintaining seamless connectivity. This disparity reflects poorly on Pakistan’s preparedness and raises questions about the efficiency of NHA and FWO.”


Dr. Faqeer Muhammad, Director of the China Study Centre in Gilgit-Baltistan, emphasized the broader implications, stating, “The KKH is more than just a road—it’s a vital trade corridor that plays a key role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); it is a symbol of connectivity, trade, and opportunity. Neglecting its maintenance during winter risks undermining Pakistan’s economic and strategic interests, calling for immediate attention from the authorities.” Its maintenance is critical not just for trade but for the broader economic and strategic objectives of CPEC.


This neglect not only puts lives in danger but also hampers trade activities, creating significant bottlenecks for transportation linked to CPEC.
Residents and stakeholders are demanding urgent action to address these issues. Effective utilization of resources, transparent accountability for the missing machinery, and better coordination between authorities are imperative. Maintaining the KKH as a safe and reliable trade route is not just a regional necessity; it is a cornerstone of CPEC and a matter of national importance.

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Gilgit-Baltistan Marks 77th Liberation Day from Dogra Rule

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Gilgit Baltistan Independence

Gilgit-Baltistan enthusiastically celebrated its 77th Liberation Day on November 1st, 2024. A public holiday was declared in all ten districts, and various events were organized to commemorate the occasion.


The main event was held at Yadgar Shuhada Chinar Bagh, where Governor Syed Mehdi Shah, Chief Minister Haji Gulbar Khan, and Commander FCNA Major General Syed Imtiaz Hussain Gilani unfurled the national flag. Provincial ministers, the Chief Secretary, the IG Police, and other senior officials also attended the ceremony. Floral tributes were paid to the martyrs, and the armed forces of the GB Police presented a salute.
Governor Syed Mehdi Shah emphasized the sacrifices made by the Gilgit-Baltistan Scouts, the region’s forefathers to liberate it from Dogra rule. He also acknowledged the sacrifices of the martyrs and reaffirmed the commitment to national security.


A special Independence Day ceremony was organized at the Army Helipad, where high-ranking civil and military officials participated. For the first time in Gilgit-Baltistan’s history, the 77th Independence Day Parade was telecast live on national channels, including Gilgit-Baltistan PTV. Many people viewed the parade live at Wahab Shaheed Ground and Lalak Jan Shaheed Ground.

Commander 10 Corps Lieutenant General Shahid Imtiaz highlighted the significance of Gilgit-Baltistan’s freedom, achieved through the courage and sacrifice of its people. He emphasized the region’s enduring loyalty to Pakistan.


Chief Minister Haji Gulbar Khan paid tribute to the region’s martyrs and expressed pride in the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. He also acknowledged the pivotal role played by the Gilgit-Baltistan Scouts, a force with a rich history dating back to the British Raj. Their courage and sacrifice were instrumental in securing the region’s freedom from Dogra rule. Alongside the local populace, the Scouts fought valiantly against the Dogra forces and ultimately achieved victory.


The Independence Day Parade featured troops from the NLI Center, GB Scouts, Women Police, GB Police, Punjab Rangers, Cadet College Skardu, and Cadet College Chilas. The celebrations also included paragliding performances and cultural programs, featuring national and regional patriotic songs as well as local dances.


Similar celebrations were held in all districts of Gilgit-Baltistan, with cultural programs, flag hoisting ceremonies, and tributes to martyrs. The Pakistan Army played a significant role in organizing these events and broadcasting special programs.


As Gilgit-Baltistan commemorates its 77th Liberation Day, it reaffirms its commitment to national unity and prosperity. The region’s rich history, diverse culture, and stunning natural beauty continue to attract visitors from around the world. With its strategic location and abundant resources, Gilgit-Baltistan is poised to play a vital role in Pakistan’s development and progress.

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